In kasta oo qeybtii labaad ee 2022, kiimikooyinka tamarta iyo badeecadaha kale ay galeen marxaladda sixitaanka, laakiin falanqeeyayaasha Goldman Sachs ee warbixintii ugu dambeysay ayaa weli ku nuuxnuuxsaday in arrimaha aasaasiga ah ee go'aamiya kororka kiimikooyinka tamarta iyo badeecadaha kale aysan isbeddelin, ay weli keeni doonaan faa'iidooyin dhalaalaya sanadka soo socda.
Talaadadii, Jeff Currie, agaasimaha Goldman Sachs Commodity Research, iyo Samantha Dart, agaasimaha cilmi-baarista gaaska dabiiciga ah, waxay filayaan halbeegga cabbirka ee badeecadaha waaweyn sida warshadaha kiimikada, Taas macnaheedu waa in Tusmada Soo Celinta Guud ee S&P GSCI ay heli karto 43% dheeraad ah sanadka 2023 iyadoo la eegayo 20% oo lagu daray soo celin sanadkan.
(Tusmada Wadarta Badeecadaha ee S&P Kospi, isha: Maalgashiga)
Goldman Sachs wuxuu filayaa in suuqa rubuci hore ee 2023 uu yeelan karo hoos u dhac dhaqaale, laakiin sahayda saliidda iyo gaaska dabiiciga ah ayaa sii wadi doonta inay kor u kacdo.
Marka laga soo tago hay'adda cilmi-baarista ee iibiyaha, raasamaalka ayaa sidoo kale isticmaalaya dahab iyo lacag dhab ah si uu u muujiyo rajada muddada dheer ee ku aaddan badeecadaha. Sida laga soo xigtay xogta ay maalgelisay Bridge Alternative, 15-ka jaamacadood ee ugu sarreeya ayaa diiradda saaraya suuqa badeecadaha sanadkan, cabbirka hantida waxaa maamula 50% ilaa $20.7 bilyan.
Goldman Sachs wuxuu ku soo gabagabeeyay in haddii aan la helin raasamaal ku filan oo lagu abuuro awood wax soo saar oo hodan ah, badeecaduhu waxay sii wadi doonaan inay ku dhacaan xaalad yaraanta muddada dheer, qiimuhuna wuu sii kordhi doonaa oo wuu isbeddeli doonaa xitaa si ka sii weyn.
Marka la eego bartilmaameedyada gaarka ah, Goldman Sachs waxay filaysaa in saliidda cayriin, oo hadda ku wareegaysa $80 halkii foosto, ay kor u kacdo $105 dhammaadka 2023; qiimaha cabbirka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Aasiya ayaa sidoo kale ka kici kara $33/milyan ilaa $53.
Mustaqbalka dhow, waxaa jiray calaamado muujinaya soo kabasho suuqa awoodda leh, kiimikooyinkuna way kor u kaceen.
Diseembar 16, 110 badeecadood oo la socodka Zhuochuang Information ka mid ah ayaa kordhay wareeggan, taasoo ka dhigan 50.00%; 26 badeecadood ayaa si joogto ah u taagnaa, oo ka dhigan 23.64%; 29 badeecadood ayaa hoos u dhacay, oo ka dhigan 26.36%.
Marka laga eego dhinaca alaabada gaarka ah, PBT, fiilada polyester-ka, iyo benhypenhydronic ayaa si cad loo soo celiyay.
PBT
Dhawaan, qiimaha suuqa PBT ayaa kor u kacay, faa'iidadana way soo noqotay. Tan iyo bishii Diseembar, warshadaha hore waxay bilaabeen inay hoos u dhacaan oo ay soo saaraan soosaarayaasha kaydka kaydka ah, iyo BDO-da alaabta ceeriin ah ayaa soo bandhigtay shaqada, argagaxa ugu dambeeya ee lagu qaado alaabta ayaa kordhay, sahayda suuqa PBT oo yar, qiimuhu si yar ayuu u kacay, faa'iidada warshaduhuna way soo noqotay.
Shaxda isbeddelka qiimaha resin saafiga ah ee PBT ee Bariga Shiinaha
POY
Ka dib "Golden Sagaalka Lacag Toban", baahida loo qabo fiilooyinka polyester-ka ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacday. Soo-saarayaashu waxay sii wadeen inay sameeyaan dallacaad faa'iido leh, diiradda macaamilkuna wuu sii socdaa. Dhammaadkii Noofambar, diiradda macaamilka Poy150D wuxuu ahaa 6,700 yuan/tan. Bishii Diseembar, markii baahida terminal-ka ay si tartiib tartiib ah u soo noqotay, qaabka ugu weyn ee fiilooyinka polyester-kana uu ahaa mid aad u weyn oo ku jira socodka lacagta caddaanka ah, soo-saarayaashu waxay ku iibinayeen qiimo jaban, warbixintana midba midka kale ayaa la kordhiyay. Isticmaalayaasha hoos u dhacay waxay ka walwalsanaayeen in qiimaha wax iibsiga uu kordhay xilligii dambe. Jawiga suuqa fiilooyinka polyester-ka ayaa sii kordhayay. Bartamihii Diseembar, qiimaha Poy150D wuxuu ahaa 7075 yuan/tan, taasoo ah koror dhan 5.6% bishii hore.
PA
Suuqa benhynhydr ee gudaha ayaa dhammaaday ku dhawaad laba bilood, suuquna wuxuu keenay hoos u dhac aad u weyn oo ku yimid dib u soo kabasho. Tan iyo markii uu soo galay toddobaadkan, oo ay saameeyeen dib u soo kabashada suuqa benhypenichydr, faa'iidada warshadaha benhypenhydrate ee gudaha ayaa soo hagaagtay. Kuwaas waxaa ka mid ah, faa'iidada guud ee wax soo saarka muunadda benhypenhydrate ee deriska la ah waa 132 yuan/ton, koror dhan 568 yuan/ton laga bilaabo Diseembar 8, hoos u dhacuna waa 130.28%. Qiimaha alaabta ceeriin ayaa hoos u dhacay, laakiin suuqa bonalide wuu xasilloonaa oo dib u soo kabtay, warshaduhuna way is beddeleen khasaarooyin. Faa'iidada guud ee muunadda pyrine waa 190 yuan/ton, koror dhan 70 yuan/ton laga bilaabo Diseembar 8, iyo hoos u dhac dhan 26.92%. Waxay inta badan sabab u tahay qiimaha warshadaha alaabta ceeriin ayaa dib u soo kabtay, halka qiimaha suuqa ee benic anhydride uu si xoog leh kor ugu kacay, khasaaraha warshadahana uu yaraaday.
Si hubaal ah, waxaa jira falanqeeyayaal hadda u maleynaya in saameynta hoos u dhaca dhaqaalaha la dhayalsaday. Ed Morse, madaxa cilmi-baarista badeecadaha ee Citigroup, ayaa toddobaadkan sheegay in isbeddel suurtagal ah oo ku yimaada jihada suuqyada badeecadaha, oo ay ku xigto hoos u dhac caalami ah oo suurtagal ah, ay khatar weyn ku noqon doonto heerka hantida.
Waa habeen barqo ah, iyadoo la sugayo in baahidu hoos u dhacdo, sida laga soo xigtay Youliao. Sannadkii 2013, baahida Shiinaha waxaa saameeyay cudurka faafa, halka sicir bararka sare uu si tartiib tartiib ah u yareeyay baahida dibadda. Inkasta oo suuqu uu filayo in heerka kororka heerka Fed uu hoos u dhici doono, haddana saameynta dhaqaalaha dhabta ah ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u soo bixi doonta, taasoo horseedaysa hoos u dhac dheeraad ah oo ku yimaada kobaca baahida. Dabacsanaanta siyaasadda ka hortagga cudurrada faafa ee Shiinaha ayaa dardar gelisay soo kabashada, laakiin heerka ugu sarreeya ee cudurka ayaa wali keeni kara caqabado muddo gaaban ah. Soo kabashada Shiinaha ayaa laga yaabaa inay bilaabato rubuca labaad.
Waqtiga boostada: Diseembar-22-2022