Warshadaha kiimikooyinka ayaa la kulma kor u kaca qiimaha "taariikhiga ah" ee 2025, oo ay wado dib u habeynta dhaqdhaqaaqa baahida saadka iyo dib u qaybinta qiimaha silsiladda saadka. Hoos waxaa ku yaal falanqaynta darawalada ka dambeeya qiimaha kor u kaca, caqligal ka dambeeya kala duwanaanshaha faa'iidada, waddooyinka dib u habeynta warshadaha, iyo fursadaha maalgashiga.
I. Darawaliinta Fadhi-qoto dheer ee Kor u kaca Qiimaha
1. Isbeddelka Kacaanka ee Agabka Ceyriinka
Isudheellitir la'aanta dalabaadka saliida ceyriinka: OPEC+ wax soo saarka oo ay weheliso koboca xaddidan ee soosaarayaasha aan OPEC ahayn ayaa ka dhigay Brent cayriin ka sarreeya $ 100 / foosto.
- Baahida qarxa ee agabka tamarta cusub: Lithium carbonate (darajada warshadeed ee baytariyada LFP) qiimuhu wuxuu kor u kacay 120% YoY, halka dareeraha DMC ee elektrolytka uu jabiyay ¥10,000/tan calaamada.
- Kharashka kaarboonka ee cad: Qiimaha kaarboonka ee CBAM ee EU hadda waxay daboolayaan kiimikooyinka aasaasiga ah sida ammonia synthetic iyo methanol.
2. Cunnaanshaha-Dhinaca Dhismeed
- Dejinta awoodda Yurub: BASF iyo kooxaha kale waxay xireen 30% awoodda ammonia-ka-samaynta ee Jarmalka, iyagoo u beddelaya wax-soo-saarka Xeebta Gacanka Mareykanka.
- Dib-u-habaynta dhinaca sahayda ee Shiinaha 2.0: Shuruudaha cusboonaysiinta deegaanka iyo farsamada ee warshadaha dheeha iyo titanium dioxide ayaa dardargeliyay ka bixitaanka wax-soo-saarayaasha-yar-dhexe.
- Caqabadaha saadka juqraafiyeedka: Dhibaatada Badda Cas waxay sababtay 300% kor u kaca kharashka maraakiibta Aasiya-Yurub, ballaarinta qiimaha badeecooyinka xasaasiga ah ee gaadiidka sida TDI.
3. Kharashka Laga Gudbo Isbadalada Tignoolajiyada
Ka-ganacsiga agabka noolaha ku salaysan: Qiimaha PLA waxa uu amrayaa 40% qiimo ka sarreeya PE-ga caadiga ah, iyada oo Apple iyo Tesla ay ku xidhan yihiin qandaraasyo wakhti dheer ah.
- Meelaynta kiimikooyinka semiconductor-ka: Qiimaha aadka u saafiga ah ee elektiroonigga ah ee hydrofluoric acid ayaa kor u dhaafay $50,000/ton, oo leh 15% qiimo jaban ah beddelka Japan/Koonfur Kuuriya.
II. Khariidadda kala-duwanaanta faa'iidada
| Qaybta | Isbeddelka ROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Kordhinta Qiimaha Qiimaha | Wadayaasha Furaha |
| Qalabka Tamarta Cusub | +8.2pc→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Horumarka baytari-state adag |
| Kiimikooyinka badan | -3.5pc → 6.8% | 10-15% | Kharashka dariiqa dhuxusha ku salaysan |
| Kiimikada gaarka ah | +5.1pc→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Baahida alaabta baabuurta fudud |
| Agro-chemicals | +2.3pc → 12.7% | 18-22% | Korsashada dalagga GMO + abaarta Koonfurta Ameerika |
III. Socdaalka Qiimaha ee Guud ahaan Silsiladda saadka
1. Haysta kheyraadka kor ku xusan (tusaale, fosfooraska & soosaarayaasha lithium) ayaa xukuma awooda qiimaha, iyadoo shirkadaha sida Yuntianhua ay gaareen> 50% wadarta guud ee rubuci gudaheed.
2. Qaybaha Barrier-sare ee Midstream:
- Fluoropolymers: Khidmadaha kala-soocida PVDF ee agabka farsamaynta ayaa ku dhacay ¥80,000/ton.
Kiimikooyinka nadiifka ah ee aadka u sarreeya: Shuruudaha nadiifinta isopropanol-seconductor-grade ayaa ka kacay 99.99% ilaa 99.9999%.
3. Bixiyeyaasha Habaynta Hoos-u-socodka: Shirkadaha sida Covestro waxay soo bandhigeen moodooyinka "wax-qabad-ku-bixinta", taasoo kordhinaysa haynta macaamiisha 30%.
IV. 2025 Qodobbada Horumarineed ee Muhiimka ah
1. Daaqadaha Beddelka Farsamada:
- Faa'iidada qiimaha Ethane dildilaaca waa cidhiidhi, iyadoo mashruuca PDH ee ROI uu hoos uga dhacay 5%.
- Kharashka wax soo saarka ee BDO-ku-salaysan wuxuu hoos u dhacayaa 25% marka loo eego waddooyinka batroolka.
2. Dib-u-habaynta Gobolka:
-Xarunta kiimikada baaruudda-dhexe ee Bariga Dhexe: SABIC-da Sucuudigu waxay dhistay 2M ton/sannadkii warshad sulfuric acid ah oo qiimaheedu jaban yahay.
- Koonfur-bari Aasiya daahan dhexdhexaad ah: Rinjiga Nippon Vietnam wuxuu ku shaqeeyaa 120% isticmaalka awoodda.
3. Qiimaynta ESG:
- Mashaariicda ammonia-ku-saleysan ee hydrogen-ka waxay helayaan 3x qiimo dhimis
- Midowga Yurub wuxuu mamnuucayaa alaabada ay ka kooban tahay PFAS> 60% CAGR beddelka
V. Matrix Go'aanka Maalgashiga
Mudnaanta Qoondaynta Istaraatiijiga ah:
- Qalabka caqabada sare leh: Koofiyadaha armalada malabka ee Aramid, horuyaasha silikoon carbide.
- Qalqal-geliyayaasha: Isku-dhafka adiponitrile-ku-saleysan Plasma, CO₂-u-DMC-beddelid.
- Horyaalada qarsoon: Photoresist strippers, aerospace-sealants.
Digniinaha Khatarta:
- Maraykanku wuxuu ku soo rogay 15% tacriifooyin alaabada Shiinaha ku salaysan (wax ku ool ah Q3 2025).
- Horumarka baytariyada Sodium-ion waxay burburin karaan baahida walxaha lithium.
Warshaduhu waxa ay marayaan dib-u-habaynta silsiladeeda qiimaha ugu weyn tan iyo 2008. Shirkadaha leh kala duwanaanta tignoolajiyada iyo awoodaha is dhexgalka tooska ah, iyo sidoo kale ciyaartoyda niche ee haysta shatiyada wax soo saarka ee yar, ayaa ah diiradda muhiimka ah. Iyada oo lagu jiro isbeddelka qiimaha ee la kordhiyay, shirkadaha ilaalinaya soo-beddelka alaabada ee ka hooseeya 30 maalmood waxay muujin doonaan adkeysi faa'iido leh.
Waqtiga boostada: Meey-30-2025