Sannadka 2023 ayaa soo galaya. Iyadoo la hagaajinayo siyaasadaha ka hortagga iyo xakamaynta cudurrada faafa, xoogga tallaabooyinka lagu xasilinayo kobaca iyo saameynta hoose ee salka, dhowr hay'adood oo cilmi-baaris ah ayaa saadaaliyay in kobaca GDP-ga ee Shiinaha ee sannad-sannadeedka uu si weyn u soo kaban doono sanadkan. Iyada oo ah warshad tiir u ah dhaqaalaha qaranka, warshadaha kiimikada ayaa isku xira kheyraad kala duwan iyo tamar kor u socota, halka kuwa hoose ay si toos ah ula xiriiraan baahiyaha maalinlaha ah ee dadka. Sannadka 2023, warshadaha kiimikada waa inay tixgeliyaan labadaba isbeddellada wareegga kaydka iyo beddelka raadadka, markaa meelaha ay noqon doonaan kuwa ugu xooggan ee raasamaalka? Si loo qanciyo akhristayaasha, istaraatiijiyadaha maalgashiga batroolka iyo kiimikada ee shirkadaha dammaanadaha sida Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities iyo China Merchants Securities ayaa si buuxda loo xallin doonaa.
Shirkii Shaqada Dhaqaalaha Dhexe ee dhawaan la qabtay si cad ayaa loo sheegay in dadaallo la sameeyo si loo ballaariyo baahida gudaha, isla markaana wax ka beddelka dhawaan lagu sameeyay siyaasadda xakamaynta cudurrada faafa uu dardar geliyay soo kabashada suuqa macaamiisha gudaha. Iyadoo la filayo in la dhammaystiro, tiro ka mid ah shirkadaha dilaaliinta ayaa aaminsan in: Sanadka 2023, baahida loo qabo qaar ka mid ah alaabada kiimikada ayaa la filayaa inay soo kabato kobaca, saxanka kiimikada cusub ee ku lug leh casriyeynta tamarta cusub, kaydinta tamarta, semiconductor-ka iyo warshadaha militariga ayaa weli sii wadi doona ganacsi sare. Kuwaas waxaa ka mid ah, walxaha semiconductor-ka, walxaha photovoltaic-ka, walxaha lithium-ka iyo wixii la mid ah ayaa si gaar ah u mudan dareenka maalgashadayaasha.
Qalabka Semiconductor-ka: ka faa'iidayso beddelka gudaha si aad u dardar geliso horumarka
Sannadkii 2022, sababtoo ah jawiga dhaqaale ee adduunka iyo isbeddelka wareegga barwaaqada warshadaha iyo saameynta soo noqnoqota ee cudurka faafa, warshadaha elektaroonigga oo dhan waxay la kulmeen cadaadis gaar ah oo hawlgal. Laakiin guud ahaan, warshadaha semiconductor-ka Shiinaha ayaa wali koraya.
Warbixinta Cilmi-baarista Amniga ee Guoxin waxay tilmaamtay in heerka deegaan ee agabka semiconductor-ka ee dalkaygu uu ahaa qiyaastii 10% oo keliya sannadkii 2021, waana mid aan faa'iido lahayn marka loo eego qaninimada iyo tartanka. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, mustaqbalka fog, warshadaha isku dhafan ee dalkaygu waxay bilaabi doonaan wadada hal-abuurka madaxbannaan. Waxaa la filayaa in agabka iyo qalabka gudaha ay heli karaan ilo iyo fursado badan, wareegga beddelka ah ee gudahana waxaa la filayaa inuu gaabiyo.
Sannadihii ugu dambeeyay, baahida loo qabo codsiyada semiconductor-ka iyo suuqyada macaamiisha ayaa si joogto ah u kordhay. Sannadkii 2021, iibka semiconductor-ka adduunka wuxuu gaaray 555.9 bilyan oo doolarka Mareykanka ah, taasoo ah koror dhan US $ 45.5 bilyan marka loo eego 2020; waxaa la filayaa inuu sii kordho sannadka 2022, iibka semiconductor-kuna wuxuu gaari doonaa US $ 601.4 bilyan. Waxaa jira noocyo badan oo agab semiconductor ah, saddexda ugu sarreeya ee suuqana waa wafers silicon ah, gaasas, iyo qaabaynta iftiinka. Intaa waxaa dheer, saamiga suuqa ee suufka dareeraha iyo nadiifinta, reagents-ka dhejiska lithography, lithography, kiimikooyinka qoyan, iyo bartilmaameedyada sputtering waa 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, iyo 3.0%, siday u kala horreeyaan.
Warbixinta Cilmi-baarista Amniga Guangfa waxay aaminsan tahay in jarista agabka semiconductor-ka (kiimikooyinka elektaroonigga ah) iyada oo loo marayo cilmi-baaris iyo horumarin gudaha ah ama isku-darka iyo iibsiga kordhinta ay tahay qaab caadi ah oo shirkadaha kiimikada ay ku raadiyaan isbeddel sannadihii ugu dambeeyay. In kasta oo shirkadaha isbeddelka guuleysta ay heli karaan qiimeyn suuq oo sare iyagoo helaya warshado dhaqso badan, waxaan soo bandhignay mowjad koboc laba-geesood ah. Mowjadda horumarka degdegga ah ee warshadaha semiconductor-ka gudaha, shirkadaha agabka la xiriira ayaa sidoo kale fursad wanaagsan u helay beddelka gudaha. Qaar ka mid ah shirkadaha leh xoog R & D oo xooggan iyo heerarka macaamiisha guuleysta, iyo isbeddelka wax soo saarka iyo casriyeynta guuleysta ayaa la filayaa inay la wadaagaan horumarka degdegga ah ee warshadaha semiconductor-ka.
Ping An Securities Research ayaa sheegtay in ay jiraan arrimo badan sida "wareegga silikoonka" iyo wareegyada dhaqaalaha guud, waxaana la filayaa in warshadaha semiconductor-ka ay hoos ugu dhacaan sanadka 2023.
Warbixinta Cilmi-baarista Amniga Galbeedka waxay aaminsan tahay in kororka xakamaynta dhoofinta Mareykanka uu dedejin doono beddelka gudaha ee agabka semiconductor-ka. Waxay rajo wanaagsan ka qabaan agabka semiconductor-ka, qaybaha iyo qalabka la xiriira, iyo suuqa carbide-ka silicon.
Qalabka sawir-qaadista: Suuqa POE ee heerka toban bilyan ah ayaa sugaya inuu jabo
Sannadkii 2022, iyadoo la horumarinayo siyaasadda dalkayga, tirada rakibaadda cusub ee warshadaha sawir-qaadista ee gudaha ayaa si weyn u korodhay, baahida loo qabo filimka koolada sawir-qaadista ayaa sidoo kale korodhay.
Alaabada ceeriin ee filimka koolada sawir-qaadista waxaa loo qaybiyaa laba nooc: bulshada ethylene-ethyl acetate (EVA) iyo polyolefin elastomer (POE). EVA, oo ah walaxda ceeriin ee hadda jirta ee filimka koolada sawir-qaadista ...
Walax kale oo ceeriin ah oo caadi ah oo POE ah ayaa lagu dabaqi karaa qalabka korontada, baabuurta, fiilooyinka, xumbo-sameynta, qalabka guryaha iyo beeraha kale. Waqtigan xaadirka ah, filimka qalabka korontada ee baakadaha ayaa noqday meesha ugu weyn ee lagu dabaqo POE. Sida laga soo xigtay "Khariidadda Wadada Horumarinta Warshadaha Sawirka ee Shiinaha (Daabacaadda 2021)", saamiga suuqa ee filimka koolada POE ee gudaha iyo filimka koolada polyethylene (EPE) ee xumbada sanadka 2021 ayaa kor u kacay ilaa 23.1%. Sannadihii ugu dambeeyay, iyadoo kororka joogtada ah ee wax soo saarka qaybaha sawirka ee dalkayga iyo gelinta joogtada ah ee POE ee filimka koolada sawirka, baahida POE ee gudaha ayaa si joogto ah u korodhay.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, maadaama habka wax soo saarka POE uu leeyahay caqabado badan, hadda, shirkadaha gudaha ma haystaan awoodda POE, dhammaan isticmaalka POE ee dalkayguna wuxuu ku tiirsan yahay soo dejinta. Tan iyo 2017, shirkadaha gudaha waxay si isdaba joog ah u sameeyeen alaabada POE. Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical iyo ganacsiyada kale ee gaarka loo leeyahay ayaa la filayaa inay mustaqbalka gaaraan beddelka gudaha ee POE.
Agabka baytariyada Lithium: rarista afarta agab ee ugu muhiimsan ayaa la sii kordhiyay
Sannadkii 2022, suuqa kaydinta tamarta ee bateriga lithium-ka ee cusub ee Shiinaha ayaa weli sarreeya, taasoo keentay in shixnadaha bateriga lithium-ka ay si weyn u kordhaan. Sida laga soo xigtay xogta Ururka Baabuurta Shiinaha, laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Noofambar 2022, wax soo saarka iyo iibinta baabuurta tamarta cusub ee gudaha ayaa dhammeeyay 6.253 milyan iyo 6.067 milyan, siday u kala horreeyaan, taasoo ah koror celcelis ahaan sannad-sannadeedka ah, saamiga suuquna wuxuu gaaray 25%.
Machadka Cilmi-baarista Warshadaha Tiknoolajiyadda Sare (GGI) ayaa la filayaa inuu iibiyo in ka badan 6.7 milyan oo gawaarida tamarta cusub ee gudaha ah sanadka 2022; waxaa la filayaa in suuqa cusub ee gawaarida tamarta ee Shiinaha uu dhaafi doono 9 milyan sanadka 2023. Sanadka 2022, heerka kobaca rarida baytariyada lithium ee Shiinaha ayaa la filayaa inuu dhaafo 100%, heerka kobaca rarida baytariyada korontada ayaa la filayaa inuu dhaafo 110%, heerka kobaca rarida baytariyada lithium-ka kaydinta tamartana wuxuu ka badan yahay 150%. Kobaca la taaban karo ee rarida baytariyada lithium-ka ayaa horseeday afar walxood oo waaweyn oo ah walxo togan, taban, diaphragm, elektrolyt, iyo walxo kale oo baytariyada lithium ah sida lithium hexfluorophosphate iyo foil copper.
Xogtu waxay muujinaysaa in qeybtii hore ee 2022, Qalabka Elektarooniga ah ee Lithium Electric ee Shiinaha uu diray 770,000 tan, taasoo ah koror dhan 62% sannadkii; shixnadaha qalabka elektarooniga ee taban waxay ahaayeen 540,000 tan, koror dhan 68% sannadkii; 55%; shixnadaha elektarooniga waxay ahaayeen 330,000 tan, koror dhan 63% sannadkii. Guud ahaan, sannadkii 2022, shixnadaha guud ee afarta baytariyo ee lithium ee ugu waaweyn Shiinaha ayaa ahaa isbeddelka kobaca.
GGII waxay saadaalineysaa in suuqa baytariyada lithium-ka ee gudaha uu dhaafi doono 1TWh sanadka 2023. Kuwaas waxaa ka mid ah, shixnadaha baytariyada korontada ayaa la filayaa inay dhaafaan 800GWh, shixnadaha baytariyada kaydinta tamartana waxay dhaafi doonaan 180GWh, taasoo horseedi doonta shixnadaha guud ee afarta baytariyada lithium-ka ee waaweyn inay sii kordhaan.
Inkasta oo qiimaha macdanta lithium iyo milixda lithium ay hoos u dhaceen Diseembar 2022. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, indhaha dallaaliinta, tani waxay inta badan sabab u tahay saameynta xilli-ka-baxsan, "barta isbeddelka" ee qiimaha lithium-kana ma aysan gaarin.
Huaxi Securities waxay aaminsan tahay in isbeddelka qiimaha milixda lithium uu yahay isbeddelka caadiga ah ee xilliga ugu sarreeya warshadaha, ee uusan ahayn "barta isbeddelka". Shen Wanhongyuan Securities waxay sidoo kale aaminsan tahay in iyadoo la sii daayo awoodda wax soo saarka alaabta ceeriin sanadka 2023, isbeddelka faa'iidada silsiladda silsiladda warshadaha baytariyada lithium uu sii socon doono laga bilaabo kor ilaa hoos. Zhejiang Business Securities waxay aaminsan tahay in qirashada kheyraadka lithium ay ka badan tahay intii loo baahnaa qeybtii labaad ee 2023.
Waqtiga boostada: Jan-10-2023