Sannadka 2023 ayaa ku sii qulqulaya. Iyada oo la wanaajinayo ka-hortagga iyo siyaasadaha xakamaynta cudurrada faafa, xoogga tallaabooyinka lagu xasilinayo kobaca iyo saamaynta hoose ee hoose, dhowr hay'adood oo cilmi-baaris ah ayaa saadaaliyay in kobaca GDP ee Shiinaha ee sanadka-sannadka uu si weyn u soo kabsan doono sanadkan.Sida warshadaha tiir-dhexaadka ah ee dhaqaalaha qaranka, warshadaha kiimikaad waxay isku xiraan kheyraadka kala duwan iyo tamarta kor u kaca, halka qulqulka hoose uu si toos ah ula xiriiro baahiyaha maalinlaha ah ee dadka.Sannadka 2023, warshadaha kiimikaadku waa inay tixgeliyaan labadaba isbeddelka wareegga alaabada iyo beddelka raadraaca, haddaba aagagee noqon doona tuyere caasimadda ugu xooggan?Si loo qanciyo akhristayaasha, xeeladaha maalgashiga batroolka iyo kiimikaad ee shirkadaha dammaanadda sida Huaxin Securities, Securities New Century, Changjiang Securities iyo China Merchants Securities ayaa si buuxda loo kala saari doonaa.
Shirweynihii shaqada ee dhaqaalaha dhexe ee dhawaantan ayaa si cad u sheegay in loo baahan yahay in lagu dadaalo sidii loo balaadhin lahaa baahida gudaha, isla markaana hagaajinta dhawaan lagu sameeyay siyaasadda xakamaynta cudurrada ayaa soo dedejisay soo kabashada suuqa macaamiisha gudaha.Sida laga filayo filashada dhamaystiran, tiro ka mid ah dilaaliinta ayaa aaminsan in: 2023, baahida loo qabo qaar ka mid ah wax soo saarka kiimikada ayaa la filayaa in ay soo kabtaan koritaanka, iyo saxan kiimikada cusub ee ku lug la cusboonaysiinta tamarta cusub, kaydinta tamarta, semiconductor iyo warshadaha militariga weli noqon doonaa. joogteeyo ganacsi sare.Waxaa ka mid ah, qalabka semiconductor, qalabka sawirada, qalabka lithium iyo wixii la mid ah ayaa si gaar ah u qalma dareenka maalgashadayaasha.
Qalabka Semiconductor: ka faa'iidayso beddelka guriga si aad u dardargeliso horumarka
2022, iyadoo ay ugu wacan tahay jawiga dhaqaalaha caalamiga ah iyo isbedbeddelka wareegga barwaaqada warshadaha iyo saameynta soo noqnoqda ee faafitaanka, dhammaan warshadaha elektiroonigga ah waxay la kulmeen cadaadis hawleed gaar ah.Laakiin guud ahaan, warshadaha semiconductor ee Shiinaha ayaa wali sii kordhaya.
Warbixinta Cilmi-baarista ee Guoxin Securities waxay tilmaantay in heerka deegaan ee agabka semiconductor ee dalkaygu uu ahaa kaliya 10% sanadka 2021, waxayna ahayd mid liidata marka loo eego qaninimada qaybta iyo tartanka.Si kastaba ha ahaatee, mustaqbalka fog, warshadaha isku dhafan ee dalkaygu waxay bilaabi doonaan waddada hal-abuurnimo madax-bannaan.Waxaa la filayaa in agabka iyo agabka gurigu ay heli karaan kheyraad iyo fursado badan, waxaana la filayaa in wareegga beddelka ee gudaha uu soo gaabiyo.
Sanadihii la soo dhaafay, baahida codsiyada semiconductor iyo suuqyada macaamiisha ayaa kor u kacay si joogto ah.2021, iibka semiconductor-ka caalamiga ah wuxuu gaaray 555.9 bilyan US dollar, koror ah US $ 45.5 bilyan marka loo eego 2020;waxaa la filayaa in ay sii socoto in ay koraan 2022, iyo iibinta semiconductor waxay gaari doontaa US $ 601.4 bilyan.Waxaa jira noocyo badan oo ah qalabka semiconductor, saddexda ugu sarreeya ee suuqa ayaa ah wafers silikoon, gaas, iyo qaabeynta iftiinka.Intaa waxaa dheer, saamiga suuqa ee dareeraha dhalaalaysa iyo suufka suufka, reagents lithography xabagta, lithography, kiimikooyinka qoyan, iyo bartilmaameedyada sputtering waa 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, iyo 3.0%, siday u kala horreeyaan.
Warbixinta Cilmi-baarista Securities Guangfa waxay aaminsan tahay in gooynta duurka qalabka semiconductor (kiimikada elektaroonigga ah) iyada oo loo marayo cilmi baaris iyo horumarin ama isku darka kordhinta iyo iibsiga ay tahay nooc caan ah oo ganacsiyada kiimikada ah si ay u raadiyaan isbeddel sannadihii la soo dhaafay.Iyadoo shirkadaha is-beddelka ee guuleysta ay heli karaan qiimeeyn sare oo suuqa ah iyagoo helaya warshado degdeg ah, waxaan soo qaadnay mowjad koror ah oo labajibbaaran.Mowjadda horumarinta degdega ah ee warshadaha semiconductor-ka gudaha, shirkadaha alaabada la xidhiidha waxay sidoo kale keeneen fursad wanaagsan oo loogu talagalay beddelka gudaha.Shirkadaha qaarkood ee leh xoogga R & D ee xooggan iyo heerarka macaamiisha guuleysta, iyo isbeddelka badeecada iyo cusboonaysiinta ayaa la filayaa inay wadaagaan horumarka degdega ah ee warshadaha semiconductor.
Ping An Securities Research ayaa sheegaysa inay jiraan arrimo badan sida "wareegga silikon" iyo wareegyada dhaqaalaha sare, iyo warshadaha semiconductor ayaa la filayaa inay hoos u dhacaan 2023.
Warbixinta Cilmi-baarista Securities Western waxay aaminsan tahay in kororka xakamaynta dhoofinta Maraykanka ay dardargelin doonto beddelka gudaha ee alaabta semiconductor.Waxay rajo ka qabaan agabka semiconductor, qaybaha iyo qalabka la xiriira, iyo suuqa carbide silicon.
Qalabka Sawir-voltaic: Toban bilyan-heer suuqa POE ayaa sugaya inuu dhex maro
2022, iyada oo la raacayo horumarinta siyaasadda waddankayga, tirada rakibaadda cusub ee warshadaha sawir-qaadista gudaha ayaa si aad ah u kordhay, iyo baahida loo qabo filimka xabagta sawir-qaadka ayaa sidoo kale kordhay.
Sawirada xabagta xabagta alaabta ceeriin waxaa loo qaybiyaa laba nooc: ethylene-ethyl acetate community (EVA) iyo polyolefin elastomer (POE).EVA, sida alaabta ceeriin ee caadiga ah ee filimka xabagta sawirkavoltaic, waxay leedahay heer sare oo ku-tiirsanaanta soo dejinta, waxayna leedahay meel weyn oo loogu talagalay meelaynta mustaqbalka.Isla mar ahaantaana, waxaa la filayaa in baahida loo qabo EVA ee duurka filimka xabagta photovoltaic ee dalkeyga 2025 uu gaari karo ilaa 45.05%.
Qalabka kale ee caadiga ah ee POE ayaa lagu dabaqi karaa sawir-qaadista, baabuurta, fiilooyinka, xumbo-sameynta, qalabka guriga iyo meelo kale.Waqtigan xaadirka ah, filimka koollada baakadaha sawir-qaadista ayaa noqday goobta ugu weyn ee codsiga POE.Marka loo eego "Khariidadda Horumarinta Warshadaha Shiinaha ee Sawir-voltaic (2021 Edition)", saamiga suuqa ee filimka xabagta POE ee gudaha iyo filimka xabagta polyetylen (EPE) ee 2021 ayaa kordhay ilaa 23.1%.Sanadihii la soo dhaafay, iyada oo kor u kaca joogtada ah ee wax soo saarka qaybaha sawir-qaadista ee dalkayga iyo dhexgalka joogtada ah ee POE ee filimka xabagta ee sawirka, baahida POE ee gudaha ayaa si joogto ah u kordhay.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, sababtoo ah habka wax soo saarka POE ayaa leh caqabado sarreeya, hadda, shirkadaha waddanku ma laha awoodda POE, dhammaan isticmaalka POE ee dalkaygu waxay ku tiirsan yihiin soo dejinta.Laga soo bilaabo 2017, shirkadaha gudaha waxay si isdaba joog ah u horumariyeen alaabada POE.Wanhua Kiimikada, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Chemistry Satellite iyo ganacsiyada kale ee gaarka loo leeyahay ayaa la filayaa inay gaaraan bedelka gudaha ee POE mustaqbalka.
Walxaha baytariyada lithium: shixnadaha afarta shay ee muhiimka ah waa la kordhiyey
Sannadka 2022, gaadhiga tamarta cusub ee Shiinaha iyo suuqa kaydinta tamarta lithium-ta ayaa weli ah mid sarreeya, taasoo kaxaysa shixnadaha agabka baytariyada lithium si ay u korodho.Sida laga soo xigtay xogta Ururka Baabuurta Shiinaha, laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Noofambar 2022, wax soo saarka iyo iibinta baabuurta tamarta cusub ee gudaha waxay dhammaatay 6.253 milyan iyo 6.067 milyan, siday u kala horreeyaan, celcelis ahaan korodhka sannad-sannadka, saamiga suuqana wuxuu gaadhay 25%.
Machadka Cilmi-baarista Warshadaha Sare (GGII) ayaa la filayaa inuu iibiyo in ka badan 6.7 milyan iibka baabuurta tamarta cusub ee gudaha 2022;waxaa la filayaa in suuqa baabuurta tamarta cusub ee Shiinaha uu dhaafo 9 milyan sanadka 2023. 2022, heerka kobaca shixnadaha baytariyada lithium ee Shiinaha ayaa la filayaa in uu dhaafo 100%, heerka kobaca shixnadaha batteriga korontada ayaa la filayaa in uu dhaafo 110% Kaydinta tamarta shixnadaha baytariyada lithium ayaa ka badan 150%.Kobaca weyn ee shixnadaha baytariyada lithium waxay ku kaxaysay afarta walxood ee ugu waaweyn ee togan, taban, diaphragm, electrolyte, iyo qalabka kale ee baytariyada lithium sida lithium hexfluorophosphate iyo foil naxaasta heerar kala duwan.
Xogtu waxay muujineysaa in qeybtii hore ee 2022, Shiinaha Lithium Electric Qalabka Elektaroonigga ah uu soo raray 770,000 tan, koror 62% sannad kasta;shixnadaha qalabka korantada taban waxay ahaayeen 540,000 tan, korodhka 68% ee sanadka;55%;Shixnadaha korantada waxay ahaayeen 330,000 tan, koror 63% sannadkii.Guud ahaan, sanadka 2022, shixnadaha guud ee afarta batari ee waaweyn ee lithium ee Shiinaha ayaa weli ah isbeddelka koritaanka.
GGII waxa ay saadaalisay in suuqa baytariyada lithium-ka ee waddanku uu dhaafi doono 1TWh sanadka 2023. Waxa ka mid ah, shixnadaha baytariyada korantada ayaa la filayaa in ay dhaafaan 800GWh, shixnadaha batariyada kaydinta tamarta waxa ay ka badnaan doonaan 180GWh, taas oo kaxayn doonta shixnadaha guud ee afarta baytari ee waaweyn ee lithium si ay u sii korodho .
In kasta oo qiimaha lithium ore iyo cusbada lithium ay hoos u dhaceen Diseembar 2022. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, indhaha dilaaliinta, tani waxay inta badan sabab u tahay saamaynta xilli-xilliyeedka, iyo "goobta is-rog-rogista" ee qiimaha lithium ma aysan gaarin.
Huaxi Securities waxay aaminsan tahay in isbeddelka qiimaha milixda lithium uu yahay isbeddelka caadiga ah ee xilliga ugu sarreeya ee warshadaha, ma aha "dhibcaha is-beddelka".Shen Wanhongyuan Securities waxay sidoo kale aaminsan tahay in sii deynta dheeraadka ah ee awoodda wax soo saarka alaabta ceeriin ee 2023, isbeddelka faa'iidada silsiladda silsiladda batteriga lithium ay sii wadi doonto kor ilaa hoos.Securities Business Zhejiang waxay aamminsan tahay in qiraalka yar ee kheyraadka lithium uu ka weyn yahay intii loo baahnaa qeybta labaad ee 2023.
Waqtiga boostada: Jan-10-2023